This year’s Oscar nominations, due to be announced on February 8, look exceptionally up for grabs: with the Golden Globes dwindling and the Critics’ Choice Award Pushed back to March due to the Omicron variant, no TV awards show has had a chance to dominate the build-up to these selections, so Oscar voters may be looking for some surprising picks.
At least I hope so. Even though I’m your projectionist and it’s my duty to give you the best Oscar predictions, a small part of me is thrilled when my guesses are wrong because it means something unexpected has happened. . With that attitude in mind, here are my projections for who and what will be nominated in the top six Oscar races, informed by industry chatter as well as recent nominations from the Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America and the Directors Guild of America.
And let the things I miss be delicious.
“Don’t look up”
“The Power of the Dog”
“Tick, tick… Boom!” »
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
“West Side Story”
Let’s start with the locks. The five films nominated by the Directors Guild – ‘Belfast’, ‘Dune’, ‘Licorice Pizza’, ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘West Side Story’ – should all be taken for granted; in fact, in the years since the academy’s Best Picture list expanded, only one DGA award nominee (David Fincher’s “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”) has failed to break into the mainstream. Oscar race. “CODA,” “King Richard,” and “Don’t Look Up” all garnered Best Actor nominations from the Actors Guild in addition to PGA Award nods, so all three of these films are good looking, too.
The two remaining slots will be vigorously pursued. ‘House of Gucci’ got a SAG casting nomination but no PGA love; instead, producers named showbiz stories “Being the Ricardos” and “Tick, Tick…Boom!” Blockbusters like ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ and ‘No Time to Die’ have made their best image cases, but if the populist Producers Guild hasn’t named them, I don’t expect more discerning Oscar voters do.
As the academy expands to include more international voters, we have more nominees for best pictures in a language other than English, and there is a strong group of international nominees this year. which includes “Drive My Car” and “A Hero”. And I haven’t even gotten to “The Tragedy of Macbeth” and “The Lost Girl,” arty adaptations that might play better with academy members than guild voters.
In the end, I’m projecting nominations for “Tick, Tick…Boom!” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth”, as there is often a strong correlation between the best picture composition and the best acting run. Still, this is the first year in a long time that the category has had 10 guaranteed nominees, so let’s hope a wider net surprises.
Read more about “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand play a toxic couple in Joel Coen’s adaptation of Shakespeare’s Scottish play.
- Review: The film “evokes a landscape of appropriate desolation, a world of deep shadows and stark negative space,” writes AO Scott.
- Coen’s interpretation: In bringing Shakespeare’s play to life, the prolific filmmaker delved into the ambiguities of the original.
- The man on fire: Washington is unrivaled at speaking Shakespearean verse in a conversational way. “It’s 45 years of training,” he told The Times.
- Black and white: Several recent films, including “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” were shot almost entirely without color. Is it just a coincidence?
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”
Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune”
It’s tempting to go with Anderson, Branagh, Campion, Spielberg and Villeneuve at the DGA Awards, but the Oscars rarely tie them five for five. So who will be the curveball?
In recent years, the director’s branch of the academy has shown a willingness to appoint international filmmakers like Paweł Pawlikowski (“Cold War”) and Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”), whose films have not even made the better programming. So that’s where I expect major recognition for Hamaguchi’s thoughtful drama “Drive My Car,” which has already won Best Picture awards from the New York Film Critics Circle, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and the National Society of Film Critics. .
And that’s also where I think we might get the snub of the year: Spielberg feels vulnerable after “West Side Story” underperformed at the box office, registered at least with voters in the SAG and missed key nominations from Hollywood’s editing and cinematography guilds. Could Hamaguchi really knock out the biggest filmmaker of the bunch? Count on the admin branch for some sort of twist.
Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
Andrew Garfield, “Tick, tick… Boom! »
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Smith hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar in 15 years, but he’s a lock to be recognized for his dominating performance in “King Richard.” Cumberbatch directs one of the most award-winning films of the season; he’s in it too. And Garfield and Washington show off two special talents — for singing and Shakespeare, respectively — that will be catnip for Oscar voters.
Could Leonardo DiCaprio land fifth place for leading the ‘Don’t Look Up’ Best Picture nominee? It has a great breakdown scene, but SAG didn’t name any of the film’s individual actors. (Perhaps the movie is so star-studded that no one had room to become the MVP.) In the end, I predict SAG nominee Bardem will stay ahead of DiCaprio and the dark horse contenders. like Peter Dinklage (“Cyrano”), Simon Rex (“Red Rocket”) and Nicolas Cage (“Pig”). But it will be close.
Olivia Colman, “The Lost Girl”
Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”
Jennifer Hudson, “Respect”
Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
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Who will be nominated for the Oscars? Here are our projections. – News 24