Between 2016 and 2022, the PRI lost 61% of its votes in the 6 states that had an election; your registration in Quintana Roo, at risk

The preliminary results of Sunday’s election show a progressive decline of the PRI in the electoral preferences of citizens and could even prefigure its disappearance in Quintana Roo, according to a historical review of the vote obtained by the oldest party in Mexico. The loss of electoral base also affected — even more — the PRD, which would lose another three state records for not having reached the minimum of 3% of the total vote cast.

In the recent elections to renew the governorship of Aguascalientes, Durango, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas, the PRI obtained around 822 thousand 249 votes, according to data from the Preliminary Electoral Results Programs (PREP). In 2016, in those same states, in the gubernatorial election alone, the PRI had obtained 2,135,000 votes, not counting the 67,500 additional votes won by its coalition with the PVEM and the defunct Nueva Alianza (Panal). ).

Although Sunday’s results still need to be confirmed by district calculations, the comparison between the PREP trend and the results of six years ago points to a loss of practically 61% of the electoral force that the PRI had in those entities. .

In turn, the PRD obtained this Sunday, preliminarily, 128,688 votes in the gubernatorial elections, a figure almost six times lower than the votes that the party took six years ago in the same entities, when it captured 752,000.

If the trends of the PREPs are confirmed, the PRI would lose, for the first time, a state registry: Quintana Roo, where it would reach 2.9% of the vote.

The PRD would do no more than add state defeats. In 2021, lost registration in 15 entities and, according to the preliminary results, this time it could disappear in three other states: Aguascalientes (obtained 2.3% of the vote), Hidalgo (2.5%) and Quintana Roo (2.9%). In Oaxaca, its existence hangs by a thread, since there it registered a vote of 3.08%.

The PRI’s loss of dominance was evidenced since the 2021 elections, when the renewal of 15 governorships were at stake, in addition to the renewal of the Chamber of Deputies. in those electionsthe PRI was defeated in eight of the 12 entities that still had. In 2018, he had already lost Yucatán to PAN and Jalisco to Movimiento Ciudadano.

Disruption to the party of a century of age

Founded by Plutarco Elías Calles in 1929 under the name of the National Revolutionary Party, the PRI governed absolutely all entities for six decades, until the end of the 1980s, when the PAN, first, and the PRD, later, began to dispute the hegemony of the single party.

After Sunday’s election, the tricolor lost Hidalgo, one of its original strongholds. Now he only has two governorships left alone – the State of Mexico and Coahuila – and he will govern Durango and Aguascalientes in coalition with the PAN and PRD, who were once his adversaries.

The fall of the PRI is also notorious if the results of recent federal electoral processes are compared.

In the 2021 elections to elect deputies, the tricolor received 8.7 million votes, 18% of the total vote. In 2018, in the same election for deputies, he had obtained 9.3 million votes, 16.7% (this calculation does not include the votes received in 2018 by his candidates for senators or his presidential standard-bearer, in order to maintain similar criteria for comparison between the two elective processes).

The case of the decline of the PRD, a party founded by Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas in 1989, is similar. In 2021, it captured 1.7 million votes for federal deputies (3.7% of the vote), while in 2018 the figure had been 2.9 million (5.3%). This means that, in the period of three years, the Aztec sun lost half of its electoral base.

In the 2015 federal elections, also for the election of deputies, the PRI obtained 11.4 million votes alone, plus around 336 thousand won in alliance with the PVEM.

In that election, the PRD had obtained 4.2 million votes, in addition to another 51,000 won in alliance with the PT.

Another point of comparison is the presidential elections. In 2012, the PRI and its alliances contributed 18.7 million votes to its candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto, a figure that fell to 7.5 million in 2018, when José Antonio Meade was nominated.

The PRD fell from 15.5 million votes in 2012 —its candidate was Andrés Manuel López Obrador— to 1.4 million in 2018, when it nominated Ricardo Anaya in alliance with the PAN and MC.

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Between 2016 and 2022, the PRI lost 61% of its votes in the 6 states that had an election; your registration in Quintana Roo, at risk