PProfessor of Economics at the University of Oxford and former Advisor to the British Government, with access to 10 Downing Street, Daniel Susskind (United Kingdom, 33 years old) made himself known with The future of the professions (Teell), where he deals with the progressive substitution of robots for human beings at work. He was selected by Financial times Y New Scientist as one of the best books of 2018. This year he has published A world without work (‘A world without work’, without edition in Spanish). The key idea develops a concern of Nobel laureate Wassily Leontief: Technological progress will drive humans out of work, just as the car and tractor displaced horses. But don’t panic, Susskind cautions, because the outlook may not be too bad. “In fact, it is a rare opportunity,” he says.
XLweekly. With the pandemic, job destruction has accelerated. Are we heading towards a catastrophe?
Daniel Susskind. I am optimistic. In the 21st century, technological progress will make us collectively more prosperous than ever. In the first century, the pie divided into equal pieces for everyone barely made for a few hundred of today’s dollars; everyone lived close to the poverty line. For a thousand years it was more or less the same. And only in the last few centuries has economic progress skyrocketed; the nominal GDP per capita of the planet’s inhabitants is already $ 11,000. And in about 35 years it will double. It is a success story.
XL. For a success story, being unemployed does not seem like a happy ending …
DS Now we have a challenge: how do we distribute the cake when the traditional way of doing it, which was to pay people for their work, is less effective than before.
XL. And how do we divide it?
DS That is the fundamental question of our time. We need governments to take a more decisive role. I speak of a Great State.
“The unemployed, who is considered a parasite, has been stigmatized. Today we are going towards a new paradigm ”
XL. For a liberal, Great State sounds like a totalitarian nightmare …
DS Already. But it is not about directing the economy and assuming the role of promoter of public works, but about promoting the redistribution of wealth. Governments should not focus on production, but on distribution. And let the free market create the wealth, because it is more efficient.
XL. It has been calculated that Jeff Bezos, the great winner of the pandemic, earn 55 million euros every seven minutes. I don’t know if there will be much cake left for the others.
DS What we are seeing is that the part of the pie that goes to workers is getting smaller and smaller and that which goes to capital, especially to certain employers, is getting bigger and bigger. The problem is that human work is less and less valued, all the more reason to redistribute prosperity.
XL. Many countries have turned to aid packages that closely resemble the money helicopter and other similar measures, very controversial before the pandemic, although there were already prestigious economists, such as Martin Wolf, in the Financial times, who defended them. But even their defenders saw them on a far more distant horizon.
DS Exactly. It is striking that the economic debate that has dominated the political arena for the last decade in Europe, which was that of austerity, is irrelevant today. It is as if that argument belongs to a parallel economic universe where we no longer live. The most influential economists are in favor of higher public spending.
XL. It’s amazing…
DS This is the most extraordinary thing that has happened during the pandemic! In recent months we have found a world with less work, not because robots have taken it from us, but because the virus has swept the demand. This makes the pandemic a great trial. And what is being tested is the redistribution of wealth. We have seen that states have stepped forward and made decisions that many people considered unimaginable.
XL. Do you propose that these measures last beyond the current emergency?
DS What I propose is the need to implement a minimum income, perhaps not so much a universal basic income as a conditional basic income, for those who do not have other income or who are below a threshold. And this income should be tied to the performance of beneficial tasks for the community …
XL. How do we live a satisfying life in a world where we get paid not to work?
DS It is another of the great questions. And the pandemic is also a dress rehearsal. Work is not only a source of income, it gives life a direction, an identity.
“After the Second World War the welfare state was created. Perhaps with this crisis we will be able to create something equally generous and inspiring ”
XL. Are we going to stop asking what someone does when they are introduced to us?
DS Well, the lockdowns are forcing many to rethink their scale of values. There were times when working was considered degrading. The worker was exploited. Then this perception changed. The unemployed, who was considered a parasite, was stigmatized. Today we are going towards a new paradigm. People should be able to choose whether they want to have an identity that is not economic, but is appreciated by society.
XL. That change should start with essential workers …
DS It is ironic that many doctors, nurses, social workers, caregivers, teachers do not have salaries commensurate with their importance. The Second World War served as a catalyst for women to enter the labor market, this crisis may force us to assume that certain vital jobs are paid as they deserve.
“We have a challenge: how do we distribute the cake now that human work is less and less valued”
XL. What professions will still be necessary?
DS It is wrong to think about which jobs will survive and which ones will not. No profession is a monolithic activity: lawyers, doctors, teachers, architects… In any job, people perform a wide variety of tasks. Very few jobs will be entirely displaced by technology. But technology will gradually displace people from specific tasks within a profession.
XL. I don’t know if I get the idea …
DS Look, a recent study by consulting firm McKinsey of 820 professions concludes that only five percent can be fully automated.
XL. Well, I stay calmer.
DS Don’t claim victory, because 60 percent of occupations are made up of tasks that can be automated. In other words, most jobs have a significant component that machines can already do. So the question is not going to be what will be the jobs that will not be automated, but what tasks within work areas can humans continue to perform. And the good news is that there are many areas that are not easily automated, such as creative, personal care… The pandemic is only the first phase of a transformation that will radically affect the world of work in the 21st century.
XL. Are the losers of this transformation already slow to start studying?
DS It is not so easy to change professions from one day to the next. The best-paid positions require a very high degree of training and updating of knowledge. It will not be easy for the education system to help us out of this alley. Education is expensive and requires years of effort.
We want to say thanks to the author of this write-up for this outstanding content
Daniel Susskind | Technology is going to make us more prosperous than ever