Abiy Ahmed Ali relies on Ankara, its supplier of combat drones. Turkey already has experience in wars: Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan-Armenia.
- Abiy Ahmed Alil believes that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will never allow the egyptian general Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi (who overthrew with money from Saudi Arabia to the Government of the Muslim Brothers from Mohamed morsi) manages to control Ethiopia, whose largest trading partner after China is Turkey, with a complex network of 200 companies in the country.
- But in Ethiopia it is also found Arab Emirates, which has donated US $ 3 billion to the old Abyssinia, today Ethiopia. It has 100 investment projects, it has built an oil pipeline between Addis Ababa and Eritrea and a port and a military base, from where it bombs Yemen, which has already had an island taken away.
- Israel cares about Ethiopia for the Red Sea, from where Iran supports the Houthis of Yemen, and where its commercial ships access the Suez Canal. Israel already controls Sudan and South Sudan.
- As to Iran, Ethiopia was part of the Persian Empire.
- TO China He is indifferent to who governs the country: he will leave it only if there is open war.
- As in Afghanistan, United States it is capable of supporting both sides and does not mind turning it into a failed state as long as it takes space away from China.
Unitary vs. Federal
Alejandro López Canorea ever described in Publico.es/
- FLPT, once on the left, after 17 years of armed conflict, laid down its arms and ruled.
- Ethiopia joined George Walker Bush’s coalition to invade Iraq.
- And Ethiopia was broken: Eritrea declared itself independent, initiating the disintegration of Ethiopia.
In the 2018 elections, the United States supported the Nobel-led coalition, Abiy ahmed ali, whose motto was’Be ethiopian‘(above ethnicity), a unitary and inclusive state.
Ethiopia sent troops to Somalia against Islamic terrorism and enabled US companies to explore for oil and gas.
Abiy Ahmed Ali freed political prisoners and signed peace with Eritrea, won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, despite the rejection of Donald Trump, who hoped to win the Nobel for what in 2020 was called the Abrahamic Accords.
Abiy Ahmed Ali also launched the slogan “African solutions to African problems“, and the African Union (whose headquarters are in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia), was involved in the mess.
A central problem: the transformation of Ethiopia into one of the fastest growing economies in Africa entered into crisis, thanks to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (IFR) and its investments in medical centers (Tirunesh Dibaba Hospital), Centro for Disease Control and Prevention; Addis Ababa-Djibouti electrified railway, schools, student training scholarships, etc. In 2020, 45% of China’s foreign aid went to 44 countries in Africa to implement 1,500 projects by Chinese companies.
Meanwhile, Abiy Ahmed Ali clashed with the TPLF, determined to regain privileges, budget and political power. In the crisis, Ethiopia was left without Chinese IFR but at the same time without alternative infrastructure projects from the USA.
On the other hand, the USA changed its approach because Abiy Ahmed Ali promotes centralism but the USA approached the separatist movements.
And they entered the conflict Sudan and Egypt, allies of Washington DC who oppose the project of the Great Dam of Ethiopia -with Chinese participation-, which would bring accessible electricity to the nation. Already in September 2020, Trump cut aid to Ethiopia on this issue.
On 11/04/2021 the US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, arrived in Addis Ababa to demand that the federal government give in to the demands of the TPLF, which is increasingly close to the USA.
Faced with the obvious rejection, the United States imposed an arms embargo, etc. (the usual from WDC). The most serious thing is that behind Feltman, former director of Political Affairs of the UN in the war against Syria, is a nefarious character named Susan Rice, promoter of the useless destruction of Libya in the days of Barack Obama.
Ethiopia has expelled several UN officials for transporting weapons for the rebels in their humanitarian aid trucks, and accuses the insurgents of receiving weapons from the CIA. To top it all, the director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Ghebreyesus, is from Tigray.
In any case, Abiy Ahmed Ali failed in his military offensive against the rebels. And now supports the counteroffensiveto. Since November, the main anti-government actors prepare the final battle of the war. There is an alliance between the TPLF and the WAVE (Oromo Liberation Army), who wants to capture Addis Ababa, which they call ‘Finfinne’. Their leader, Jaal marroo, remember that Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, is an autonomous administration located in the territory of Oromia.
The TPLF and the OLA negotiated an alliance of up to 9 regional forces in opposition to the government of Abiy Ahmed, a key multi-agreement for the day after the hypothetical occupation of Addis Ababa.
The official announcement occurred on Sunday, November 5, 2021 and is called United Front of Federalist and Confederate Forces of Ethiopia (UFEFCF), with the signature of the TPLF of Tigray, the OLA of Oromia and 7 other groups of which little was known.
The most relevant thing is that the United Front describes itself as “Political body destined for the transition” and declared his support for the “Democracy, equality and self-determination” for “defend” the Constitution against the “illegal, tyrannical, autocratic and genocidal government”Of Abiy Ahmed, who is accused of
- attempt to ‘ethnic cleansing’,
- 63,000 externally displaced and
- 3 million internally displaced people,
- political assassinations,
- political imprisonment and
- arrests in internment camps.
Essential clarification: whoever is blameless cast the first stone.
The OLA is the actor that most fervently defends the independence movement, which would make it impossible to maintain the current Ethiopian state and its capital, Addis Ababa, except through some type of confederation. The latter is mentioned in the United Front: Confederacy or nothing.
Abiy Ahmed has called for urgent mobilization, which he expanded with the decree of the State of Emergency at the national level.
The recommendation of the United States to leave the country – converted into an order for diplomatic personnel – was followed by notices from countries such as Russia, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, South Korea, Canada and Israel.
The FLPT fighters, whom Addis Ababa describes as “terrorists”, announced their control of the cities of Dese (Dessie) and Kombolcha, in the Amhara region.
However, now the Ethiopian Army announced that it has liberated the cities of Dese and Kombolcha from the FLPTreported local television channel EBC News.
Uncertain ending. Much to define.
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Death in the Horn of Africa and the Nobel Peace Prize in arms