Errors in Mario Delgado’s survey method – Eloy Garza

This year gubernatorial elections will be held in six states: Tamaulipas, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Durango, Aguascalientes and Quintana Roo.

In some of them, Morena has already named her candidates. In coalition, the party of President López Obrador controls 17 of 32 federative entities, without counting on the headquarters of Mexico City.

In several of these six states, the mediocrity of the profiles is notorious.

In Oaxaca, for example, Salomón Jara Cruz remained, with evidently limited personal reach.

Why, given the current distrust in politicians, do the good ones move away or are displaced and the mediocre stay? Why is this phenomenon exacerbated by the survey method organized by Mario Delgado?

I will give a scientific explanation to this phenomenon, because the supposedly “formal” explanation was already given by Mario Delgado: “the survey method is shielded (by whom?) And offers guarantees (which ones?), That the results (by don’t they show them?) they will be transparent (sic).

Be patient and keep reading.

George Akerlof, Nobel laureate in economics and father of “asymmetric information”, explains why bad politicians stay and good politicians leave.

In a study titled “The Old Vehicle Market: Uncertainty in Qualities and the Market Mechanism,” which was published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Akerlof explains this very well, citing the used car market as an example.

The seller knows the real conditions of the vehicle, because no one has as much information better than the owner.

Instead, the buyer does not discover the quality of the car until he buys it.

Therefore, consumers of good and bad quality used cars will form an average price between both types of car and it is the one that will be set in the market.

As more low-quality cars are sold, potential buyers increase their belief that all used cars, without exception, are bad.

Therefore, they will not be willing to pay a high price for any of them.

This process of falling demand will continue until defective cars drive the highest quality used cars off the market and only the worst cars will remain.

The politician who submits to an election should expose his ideas and proposals, but now, with the controversial polling method organized by Morena, he is only asked for popularity: “image and confidence.”

Consumers of good and bad politicians in Q4 form a standard impression: all politicians end up the same, convinced that both good and bad are of the same low quality.

So there is a kind of collective resignation.

This process continues until mediocre politicians expel higher quality politicians from the electoral market, who would demonstrate their exceptional qualities if they did not have to bid under the same standard “popularity” package as bad politicians.

Conclusion, they prefer not to enter the fray and dedicate themselves to something else.

I am telling Mario Delgado, so that the President understands.

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Errors in Mario Delgado’s survey method – Eloy Garza