Predictions for the Nobel Prize in Economics 2022 – La Tercera

Since 2002, the dedicated science website, Clarivate Analytics. has successfully predicted 64 Nobel Prize winners in different categories and has already published the candidates who could win the Economics Prize in 2022, which will be announced next Monday, October 10.

Unlike previous years, this time the publication only has men among its candidates with the best chance of winning the award, eight in total, divided into 3 groups by theme, which David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido received last year. Imbens, for his work in the fields of labor economics and causal relationships, using experiments based on real-life situations to revolutionize empirical research.

The three areas that could be awarded are the role of political and economic institutions in shaping the development of nations; evidence and models that broaden the understanding of economic behavior, including, in addition to personal interest, reciprocity and altruism; and on the economics of happiness and well-being.

The first group includes the two authors of the famous 2012 book, Why Nations Fail, plus a third economist.

Daron Acemoglu. Age: 55 years. U.S. citizenship

Professor at the Department of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the United States. He is one of the names that has been sounding for at least 5 years to be awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics. He is the third most cited economist in the world, according to the Ideas / Repec ranking. He co-authored the book Why Nations Fail and The Narrow Corridor. In the latter he makes a journey to understand why some societies manage to conquer freedom, while others live or fall into tyrannies. His research areas are macroeconomics, political economy, labor economics, economic development and economic theory.

James A. Robinson. Age: 60 years. Nationality: British

Director of The Pearson Institute for the Study and Resolution of Global Conflicts, of the Harris School of Public Policy of the University of Chicago. Robinson is a constant co-author with Acemoclu of books and papers. The latest is “Non-Modernization” from 2021, in which they argue that “modernization theory” cannot explain various paths of economic development. The academic, in an interview with La Tercera days after October 18, 2019, indicated about the social crisis in Chile that “the crisis is similar to that experienced by other countries that overcame it and reached development, but that a new social pact to achieve it”.

Simon Johnson. Age: 59 years. Nationality: British

Johnson is a Professor of Entrepreneurship, Global Economy and Management at the MIT School of Management. Between 2007 and 2008 he was Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund and is currently the Co-Chairman of the CFA Institute. In his latest book “Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream” he explains how to create millions of good jobs in America through public investment in research and development. That idea has been well seen in both political parties in that country. His research area is Behavioral and Policy Sciences.

Samuel Bowles. Age: 83 years. U.S. citizenship

He is a researcher and Director of the Behavioral Sciences Program at the Santa Fe Institute (ISF) in the city of Santa Fe, New Mexico, and professor emeritus in the Department of Economics at the University of Massachusetts. Listed as “neo-Marxist” thinking, Bowles’ current research also includes theoretical and empirical studies on political hierarchy and wealth inequality and their very long-term evolution. According to the ISF review of him, “His studies of his on cultural and genetic evolution have challenged the conventional economic assumption that people are motivated exclusively by self-interest. In his latest work he has also explored how organizations, communities and nations might be better governed in light of the fact that altruistic and ethical motives are common in most populations”. Bowles has been an economic advisor to the government of Cuba, among other countries.

Herbert Gintis. Age: 82 years. U.S. citizenship

Like Bowles, Gintis is a professor emeritus in the Department of Economics at the University of Massachusetts and also a scholar at the Santa Fe Institute. He has worked with Bowles since the 1960s. He is currently leading a multidisciplinary research project that models behaviors such as empathy, reciprocity, internal/external behavior, revenge, and other observed human behaviors that are not handled well in the traditional self-care agent model.

Richard A. Easterlin. Age: 96 years. U.S. citizenship

He is currently Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California (USC). He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is recognized as the founder of the “happiness economy”. He is best known for “Easterlin’s Paradox”, presented in his 1974 paper “Does Economic Growth Improve Man’s Luck?” Some empirical experience. This paper showed that, contrary to economic theory, as a society accumulates more wealth over time, there is no corresponding increase in the happiness of its inhabitants. At USC they highlight that in recent years changes in subjective well-being throughout the life cycle have been studied, in order to clarify the relative role played in determining people’s sense of well-being by the standard of living, the family life, health and working conditions. His current research focuses on the association between long-term economic growth and subjective well-being. In his latest articles, Dr. Easterlin examines the relationship between the long-term growth rate of GDP per capita and the trend toward happiness in developing, transition, and developed countries, and finds, consistent with the result of his 1974 document, that there is no relationship between the two.

Richard Layard. Age: 88 years. Nationality: British

The economist is co-director of the Community Wellbeing Program at the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics (LSE). He is co-editor of the World Happiness Report, along with John Helliwell and Jeffrey Sachs. He is a labor economist who has worked for most of his life on how to reduce unemployment and inequality. He is also one of the first economists to work on happiness, and his main current interest is how better mental health could improve our social and economic lives. In 2005 he wrote “Happiness: Lessons from a New Science”, which was published in 20 languages. He currently continues to investigate and find significant effects of relative income on happiness and highlighting the importance of non-income variables on aggregate happiness. And in 2018 he co-authored a book titled “The Origins of Happiness: The Science of Wellness Throughout Life.” His latest book, “Can We Be Happier?” was published in 2020.

Andrew J. Oswald. Age: 69 years. Nationality: British

He is Professor of Economics and Behavioral Sciences at the University of Warwick in the UK. He is credited with helping to create the field now known as the Economics of Happiness, which is one of the fastest growing within the social sciences. Andrew has worked on seven main areas: Unions, Labor Contracts, The Wage Curve, Entrepreneurship, Homeownership and Unemployment, The Consequences of High Oil Prices, and The Economics of Happiness and Mental Health .

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Predictions for the Nobel Prize in Economics 2022 – La Tercera